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Macroeconomic Forecasting of French Economy using Machine Learning Approach

Mishra, Manu (2019) Macroeconomic Forecasting of French Economy using Machine Learning Approach. Masters thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Abstract

Prediction of macroeconomic indices plays a crucial role for government agencies and economic entities because it helps them in framing the future scale policies and viewing the future outlook of a particular economy. This is the objective of this research where it finds the possibility of forecasting of unemployment and inflation for French economy using machine learning approach. The research employs Long Short-Term Memory network model for forecasting these indices and acceptable results are obtained which shows their usefulness. The performance of LSTM is comparable to baseline model of statistical approach by Vector Autoregressive. Also, the statistical model is used to comment on the validity of Phillips Curve in context with the French economy. It is found that there is a frail relationship between indices of unemployment and inflation but it is feeble enough to influence each other.
Keywords - Forecasting, Macroeconomic, unemployment, inflation, French economy, LSTM, Vector Autoregressive, statistical approach, Phillips Curve

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science

Q Science > QA Mathematics > Computer software
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Computer software
Divisions: School of Computing > Master of Science in Data Analytics
Depositing User: Dan English
Date Deposited: 07 Jul 2020 12:21
Last Modified: 07 Jul 2020 12:21
URI: http://trap.ncirl.ie/id/eprint/4323

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