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A Statistical Study on the Impact of Weather on Crime: Technical Report

Kane, Robert (2018) A Statistical Study on the Impact of Weather on Crime: Technical Report. Undergraduate thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Abstract

The purpose of this research is to study the effect weather has on incidents of crime. The research analyses archival weather records and quantitative incidents of crime for the period 2008 through 2017 for the city of Chicago. The study was conducted for a final year project with the aim of identifying trends and patterns in the data in order to investigate if future forecasts could be made.

The methods implemented to conduct this research include the development of a data warehouse for the modelling of historical data, a statistical analysis of reports produced by the data warehouse using data analysis software, and visualisations of the results and findings of the study through Tableau for end user interpretation. A literature review was carried out to examine existing academic hypothesis and scientific findings on the relationship of weather conditions and criminality. This was to ensure the relevancy and academic integrity of the results and forecasts presented in this study.

The studies investigated in the literature review show evidence of a strong positive correlation between weather and rates of crime. These findings were used as a guideline for the development of a statistical model to demonstrate and visualise the effect temperature and weather conditions have on crime. As the relationship is influenced by and dependent on seasonality, an analysis of seasonal time series data using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing methods was implemented to construct a model to present future forecasts. These forecasts could be of significant benefit to law enforcement agencies and emergency response services to assist in resource allocation and preventative strategies.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare > Criminology > Crimes and Offences
Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science

Q Science > QA Mathematics > Computer software
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Computer software

G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences > Environment
Divisions: School of Computing > Bachelor of Science (Honours) in Business Information Systems
Depositing User: CAOIMHE NI MHAICIN
Date Deposited: 06 Nov 2018 14:34
Last Modified: 06 Nov 2018 16:19
URI: http://trap.ncirl.ie/id/eprint/3449

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