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Building Predictive Models to Forecast Population Trends in Ireland for 2017 - 2021

Fitzgerald, Tom (2018) Building Predictive Models to Forecast Population Trends in Ireland for 2017 - 2021. Masters thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Abstract

This research explores how to improve the accuracy of population forecasts in Ireland. Population projections underpin strategic national policy across key areas including infrastructure, health, education and housing. Census data shows that net migration is a major driver of Ireland's population trends. It has also proven to be highly volatile and difficult to predict. This research identifies and gathers pertinent official economic, financial, migration and demographic data, and using a Principal Component Analysis, establishes fifteen key determinants for net migration. These are used as inputs for an ARIMA forecasting model, which when tested against actual historic data, outperforms previous official predictions. This model is then extended to forecast net migration for the five-year period 2017 to 2021.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science

Q Science > QA Mathematics > Computer software
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Computer software

J Political Science > JV Colonies and colonization. Emigration and immigration. International migration > International Migration
Divisions: School of Computing > Master of Science in Data Analytics
Depositing User: CAOIMHE NI MHAICIN
Date Deposited: 06 Nov 2018 11:17
Last Modified: 06 Nov 2018 11:17
URI: http://trap.ncirl.ie/id/eprint/3439

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