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City of Chicago Crime Analysis

Moyles, Marcella (2014) City of Chicago Crime Analysis. Diploma thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Abstract

With police departments under pressure to reduce costs, crime analysis is currently used as a crime reduction measure. Crime analysis is based on the same theory as earthquake prediction. Aftershocks can be expected following the initial earthquake. Chicago crime data from 2008 to 2013 is analysed to identify patterns in the data. One week’s worth of data is analysed and pairs of incidents within 100m of earh other are extracted. The district with the highest number of incidents is then selected for further analysis. ‘Hotspot’ points for this district are plotted using RGooglemaps. Snapshots are captured as the week continues and a picture emerges of the path of crime which occurs. Overall crime trends in Chicago are also analysed using the Holt-Winters technique for prediction. The technique is evaluated against actual figures from 2011 to 2013 and is also used to predict crime trends up to 2016. Reasons for crime trends are examined as the figures show a consistent downward trend for the period. At a time of an economic downturn, an increase in crime would be expected. However, during the Great Depression, crime levels also decreased. Factors such as longer prison terms, potential victims becoming more security conscious and a change in culture are cited as possible reasons for this downward trend.

Item Type: Thesis (Diploma)
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science
Divisions: School of Computing > Higher Diploma in Science in Data Analytics
Depositing User: CAOIMHE NI MHAICIN
Date Deposited: 15 Dec 2014 15:20
Last Modified: 15 Dec 2014 15:20
URI: http://trap.ncirl.ie/id/eprint/1877

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